The Iran War’s Unexpected Winner

To What End?

Iran’s campaign appeared wildly indiscriminate, hitting sovereign territory, endangering civilians and damaging hotels, airports, ports and energy hubs beyond any claimed military rationale. Analysts noted the absence of clear strategic restraint. Tehran struck neighbors who had publicly urged de-escalation, shattered the fragile post-2023 peace with Saudi Arabia and alienated states that had avoided direct confrontation for years. In doing so, Iran seemed to achieve the outcome it had tried to prevent for decades: forging a union of Arab states—together with Washington and Jerusalem—against it.

The attacks sparked outrage and solidarity among Gulf monarchies, who had long feared being dragged into others’ conflicts but now faced existential economic and security threats from a seemingly desperate regime.

The Thaw

For decades, Saudi Arabia and Israel viewed each other through a lens of hostility rooted in the Arab­–Israeli conflict. Official relations didn’t exist. Saudi passports barred travel to Israel and public rhetoric condemned the “Zionist entity.” Yet beneath the surface, shared interests simmered. As early as the 2010s, reports emerged of covert meetings between Israeli intelligence chiefs. Then, in 2022, then-IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kohavi joined senior Arab military leaders in Sharm el-Sheikh to discuss countering Iran.

Make no mistake. This wasn’t a friendship, but rather a necessity born from facing a common foe: Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, ballistic missile program and proxy armies. 

The 2020 Abraham Accords dramatically accelerated this thaw. The UAE and Bahrain normalized ties with Israel, followed by Morocco and Sudan, forging open economic, technological and security partnerships. Saudi Arabia stayed on the sidelines publicly, insisting any deal hinge on Palestinian statehood progress. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reiterated in 2023 that normalization required “a clear pathway” to Palestinian independence with east Jerusalem as its capital. Yet privately, cooperation grew. Israeli overflights through Saudi airspace became routine, intelligence on Iranian threats flowed and economic whispers about tech investments and desalination expertise hinted at what could be.

Then came the war. Iran’s proxies had already hammered the Gulf region for years, but direct Iranian missiles on Gulf cities marked a red line. UAE authorities reported intercepting hundreds of projectiles, while Saudi Arabia detected missiles and drones over key sites. Qatar’s LNG operations and Bahrain’s aluminum plants faced severe disruptions.

The backlash was swift and unified: Arab and Muslim foreign ministers convened in Riyadh on March 19, issuing a joint statement asserting the right to self-defense under UN Charter Article 51. Saudi Arabia, long cautious, now spoke of reserving “all necessary measures” to respond aggressively to Iran.

Iran’s attacks have deepened vulnerabilities and highlighted the limitations of old alliances. Despite US bases on their soil, Gulf states found American interceptors were stretched thin. Israel, with its multilayered air defenses, real-time intelligence from Mossad and impressive offensive capabilities suddenly looks less like a historical adversary and more like an indispensable partner.