Iran Signals Potential Exit from Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

The IAEA, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, passed a resolution on June 12, 2025, declaring Iran in breach of its NPT obligations for the first time in nearly two decades. The resolution, supported by 19 of the IAEA’s 35-member Board of Governors, cited Iran’s failure to cooperate fully with inspections and provide credible reasons for traces of uranium found at undeclared sites. Iran condemned the resolution as politically motivated, with Baghaei arguing that it “prepared the ground” for Israel’s subsequent military strikes, which began on June 13 under Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion.” 

Israel, which is not a signatory to the NPT and is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons, launched its offensive citing credible intelligence that Iran was nearing the capability to build a nuclear bomb. The attacks targeted nuclear facilities, air defenses, and military command centers, killing several Iranian nuclear scientists and military commanders. Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes on Israel, escalating the conflict.

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that Tehran’s nuclear program is only for peaceful purposes and that it aligns with a religious edict by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that prohibits weapons of mass destruction. However, Iran’s mission to the UN in Vienna argued that expecting Iran to uphold its NPT commitments is “unjustified” when its civilian nuclear facilities are attacked by a non-NPT member like Israel. Iran claims the proposed bill reflects growing domestic pressure to reconsider Iran’s participation in the treaty, particularly after the IAEA resolution and Israel’s strikes. In reality, the proposed parliamentary bill formalizes what Iran has been covertly pursuing for years: the development of a nuclear weapon. 

Analysts warn that Iran’s withdrawal from the NPT could have far-reaching consequences. Kelsey Davenport of the Arms Control Association said that such a move would signal Iran’s serious consideration of nuclear weapons development as a deterrent against future attacks. The NPT allows a state to withdraw with three months’ notice if “extraordinary events” jeopardize its supreme interests, a clause Iran could invoke. However, no final decision has been made, and the bill remains in the initial stages of the legislative process, according to Iranian state media. 

The international community has responded with alarm. European foreign ministers urged Iran to return to diplomacy, while the US has bolstered its military presence in the region. President Donald Trump, who has vowed to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, warned Tehran to seek a diplomatic resolution, stating, “Iran is not winning this war.” Reports suggest that President Trump is contemplating US involvement in the conflict alongside Israel, with the specific aim of completely destroying Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities. 

Iran’s potential exit from the NPT would indicate a significant gloves-off level of escalation in its nuclear standoff with the West and Israel. Since the US withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal in 2018, Iran has ramped up uranium enrichment, with the IAEA noting that Tehran possesses enough enriched uranium to potentially produce several nuclear bombs. Although Iran denies pursuing nuclear weapons, it has not explained its enrichment of uranium to near weapons-grade thresholds. The IAEA’s findings have heightened concern among Western nations, prompting calls for increased scrutiny of Tehran’s nuclear activities.

Baghaei also criticized Israel’s nuclear ambiguity, calling it “the only possessor of weapons of mass destruction in the region.” This sentiment reflects Iran’s broader narrative that the NPT unfairly targets it while Israel faces no similar constraints. Conversely, Israel has never issued genocidal threats against any of the Middle Eastern nations or peoples, maintaining a defensive nuclear ambiguity. In contrast, Iran’s leadership, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has repeatedly called for Israel’s complete destruction, with state media in 2024 and 2025 endorsing the elimination of the “Zionist regime.”

For now, Iran’s parliament has yet to finalize the bill, and its passage is not guaranteed. However, the mere consideration of withdrawing from the NPT underscores the deepening rift between Iran and the international community. Such a bill, if it passes, will only serve to increase Iran’s isolation. As Israeli airstrikes continue unabated, with Israel’s declared objective to completely dismantle Iran’s nuclear capabilities, the proposed Iranian legislative bill, regardless of its passage, may prove to be a futile and inconsequential exercise.