Judea and Samaria Security on Edge Amid Fragile Gaza Ceasefire, Released Terror Prisoners

March 11, 2025

by: Elisha Ben-Kimon ~ Ynetnews

Tuesday, 11 March 2025 | After months of conflict and heightened tensions, the West Bank [Judea and Samaria] is entering a critical period. While the frequency of terrorist attacks has decreased, the coming weeks are expected to bring a series of developments that could inflame the already fragile security situation.

The recent release of Palestinian prisoners, ongoing Israeli military operations, growing economic distress, and the volatile atmosphere surrounding Ramadan (one of the Five Pillars of Islam when stringent disciplines are observed) all contribute to a complex and unpredictable reality.

Israeli security officials are closely monitoring these converging factors, which could lead to further escalation both in the West Bank and inside Israel. While the Israel Defense Forces and Shin Bet [Israeli internal security organization] are working to prevent a deterioration, a combination of internal and external pressures may test their ability to maintain stability.

Ramadan Tensions and the Threat of Escalation

With Ramadan already underway, Israeli security officials are bracing for the possibility of violence centered around Al-Aqsa Mosque, a frequent flashpoint during the holy month.

Religious tensions have historically been exploited by terrorist groups to incite violence, and this year is no exception. Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar named the October 7 attack “Al-Aqsa Flood,” framing it as a response to Israeli actions at the site.

The Israeli security cabinet has yet to decide whether to approve a defense establishment recommendation to allow 10,000 Muslim worshippers onto the Temple Mount, as was permitted last year. Any restrictions, confrontations, or incidents at the site could further inflame tensions, particularly against the backdrop of ongoing IDF operations in the West Bank.

The Return of Freed Terrorists to the West Bank

One of the most immediate security concerns is the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners into the West Bank as part of the hostage deal with Hamas. While Israeli officials have acknowledged the necessity of these releases, they have also warned of the consequences.

A senior security official recently estimated that about 80% of those freed are expected to return to terrorism in some form.

This is not merely a question of individuals carrying out attacks. Many of the released prisoners are experienced operatives with the knowledge and networks to reestablish terrorist cells, secure funding and weapons, and recruit new militants.

Compounding the risk, security officials have noted a significant increase in the flow of weapons and funds into the West Bank, making it easier for these individuals to reengage in terror activity.

Israeli security forces, in close coordination with the Palestinian Authority [PA], are monitoring these former prisoners. However, Hamas and other groups continue to receive external support, making it difficult to contain the growing threat. The PA itself has an interest in preventing Hamas from strengthening its presence in the West Bank, but its ability to act remains limited.

Economic Instability Fueling Unrest

The PA is facing severe financial difficulties, adding another layer of instability. At the same time, terrorist organizations are injecting funds into the West Bank, using financial incentives to recruit new operatives.

Ramadan typically brings an economic boost, as many Israeli Arabs visit Palestinian cities to shop and dine. However, security officials report a decline in both visitors and spending, indicating growing financial distress.

The worsening economy is a concern not just for the Palestinian leadership but also for Israeli security officials, who fear that economic frustration could further destabilize the situation.

The issue of Palestinian laborers in Israel also remains unresolved. The security cabinet has yet to formulate a clear policy on work permits, and in the meantime, the number of Palestinians entering Israel illegally is on the rise. Israeli security forces are struggling to monitor and regulate these movements, raising concerns that terrorist groups could exploit the situation to smuggle operatives into Israeli cities.

IDF Operations Shifting the Battlefield

The IDF continues to conduct military operations across the West Bank, particularly in the northern region, where armed groups have gained strength in recent years.

While these operations have led to the arrest or killing of key terrorist figures, they have also had unintended consequences. Many operatives are now relocating to other areas, potentially spreading the threat rather than eliminating it.

Security officials believe that maintaining a strong military presence in the West Bank is essential for reducing attacks and enabling rapid responses to intelligence threats.

However, the extended nature of IDF operations inside refugee camps has driven some terrorist operatives to reposition themselves, with the potential to launch attacks from different locations.

Terrorist organizations see this period as an opportunity to provoke wider unrest, particularly by encouraging lone-wolf attacks inside Israeli cities. Leaders of these groups are hoping that a series of high-profile incidents will trigger broader protests and inspire additional attackers.

Terror Groups Targeting Upcoming Jewish Holidays

Beyond the immediate security concerns, Israeli officials are also looking ahead to key dates on the Israeli calendar that have historically been targeted by terrorist organizations. Jewish holidays and national commemorations, including Memorial Day, Independence Day, and Passover, are often seen as strategic moments to carry out attacks.

Adding to the uncertainty is the possibility of a US policy announcement regarding Israeli sovereignty in the West Bank, as well as the potential for renewed fighting in Gaza or even along the Lebanese border. With so many volatile factors converging, Israeli security forces face one of their toughest tests in recent months.

The coming weeks will likely determine whether the relative calm in the West Bank holds or if a new wave of violence emerges. The IDF and Shin Bet remain on high alert, knowing that even a single incident could set off a wider escalation.

Posted on March 11, 2025

Source: (Exerpt of an article originally published by Ynetnews on March 10, 2025. Time-related language has been modified to reflect our republication today. See original article at this link.)

Photo Credit: IDF Spokesperson's Unit photographer/Wikimedia.org

Photo License: Wikimedia