Moldova—Russia’s Next Step?

May 20, 2014

Could Trans-Dniester follow in the footsteps of Crimea?
www.wikipedia.org/Serhio Recently the world watched as Crimea broke away from the Ukraine and was formally annexed to Russia. Nations gave lip service to the defense of Ukraine’s sovereignty over the territory but when it came down to it, Russian actions trumped Western rhetoric. Was this a unique case or should we be asking what is next?

The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) was formally dissolved on December 26, 1991. In the years since, some of the former republics have turned toward Europe and the West rather than to Russia for economic and political alliance. Of the fifteen, only three (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) are currently full-fledged European Union (EU) members. However six others (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine) have participated in the EU-initiated Eastern Partnership. Since the first summit was held in Prague in 2009, Moldova and Georgia have taken steps toward closer ties with the EU while others (specifically Belarus and the former government of Ukraine) are gravitating toward Russia.

Viktor Yanukovych and
Vladimir Putin in 2006
www.kremlin.ru When former Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych, suspended talks on closer cooperation with the EU at the Eastern Partnership’s Vilnius summit in November 2013, that action sparked the riots that ultimately led to the Crimean situation. In some ways, the country of Moldova is similar to that of the Ukraine. Trans-Dniester, a region in Moldova, which borders western Ukraine, has a long pro-Russian history. During the collapse of the Former Soviet Union, it sided with Russia and actually took up arms to prevent Moldova from becoming an independent country. An article in the BBC described the result: A ceasefire created this strip of land wedged between Ukraine and Moldova that has become what's described as a “frozen conflict.”

Unmarked soldiers guarding
a Ukrainian military base
in Perevalne
www.wikipedia.org/Anton Holoborodko The Russian majority living in the Trans-Dniester has been watching the Ukrainian–Crimean conflict with interest. Although part of Moldova, the region’s governing body recently asked Russia to consider drafting legislation that would lead to its formal annexation. Russia has yet to respond. However, there are 1,400 Russian “peace-keeping” troops in Trans-Dniester, which reportedly staged military drills this spring. NATO's most senior military commander [General Philip Breedlove] said that Russia had amassed a large military force on Ukraine's eastern border, and warned that Moldova's separatist Trans-Dniester region could be the Kremlin's next target (The Guardian).