Israel Debates Iran Nuclear Strike

Will this be the year that Israel makes good on a promise to stop Tehran? As United Nations nuclear inspectors touch down in Teheran, the running assessment is that Israel will not tolerate a nuclear-armed Iran and will do everything including a military strike to stop it.

As far back as 1997, Jane's Intelligence Review stated this very clearly and no one has denied it. What has changed over the decade is the timetable. Signs are increasingly pointing to this year being the decisive one of decision and there are indications that a direct military confrontation between Iran and the West - the U.S. and/or Israel - is more likely today than at any time in more than two decades.

"The strategy vis-a-vis Iran should be to do whatever is possible under the radar coupled with painful and crippling sanctions, but at the same time, we should also keep a viable military option on the table with the willingness to use it if necessary," former Israeli army chief Lt.-Gen. Gaby Ashkenazi said at a recent conference in Tel Aviv. "When the moment comes, I don't know if we won't be alone, and for this reason Israel must also rely on itself."

Maj.-Gen. Amir Eshel, currently head of planning for the Israeli military and front runner to be named the next air force chief, outlined recently the prevailing view that once an enemy nation has the bomb, it severely restricts the use of force in the neighborhood.

"This is going to create a dramatic change in Israel's strategic posture, because if we are forced to do things in Gaza or Lebanon under an Iranian nuclear umbrella, it might be different," Eshel told reporters and diplomats at a Jerusalem think tank last week.

A recent cartoon in The Jerusalem Post shows Netanyahu facing a street sign: "War with Iran before they get nukes" point one way and "War with Iran after they get nukes" pointing the other way. This illustrates the dilemma facing Israeli leaders.

A vast majority say war with Iran before it got nukes could have horrific results, but one Israel could weather and would eventually end, despite casualties and damage. The other scenario could see the annihilation of the Jewish state. The choice is obvious to those who advocate early action.

(Excerpts of an article by Arieh O'Sullivan on Sunday, The Media Line, January 29, 2012)
 

Will Saudi Arabia Send the Troops?

EDDAH, Saudi Arabia: Iran's relationship with Saudi Arabia - once seen as improving following President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's 2007 visit to Riyadh -  has deteriorated to the point that the Saudis may consider military intervention by joining the U.S. to protect oil shipped in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran threatened to choke off oil transportation in the Gulf following the U.S. President Barack Obama's tightening economic sanctions at the end of December and again this week [end of January] when the European Union voted to gradually impose a ban on Iranian oil. Chinese leader Wen Jiabao made a round of visits in the Gulf [in January] in a move seen by many observers as securing alternatives to Iranian oil.

Saudi Prince Turki Al-Faisal told Al-Arabiya television that the Saudi government is taking Iran's threats seriously. "I personally don't think Saudi Arabia will participate with the military, but it's a direct threat to our national interests and a direct threat to our industrial installations on the coast," Ali Al-Tawati, a Saudi military affairs analyst and professor at the College of Business Administration in Jeddah told The Media Line. "That region is a most precious region with most of our resources coming from there."

Tensions between the two countries increased when Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi promised that the kingdom could boost oil production by 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) to make up for any shortfall caused by sanctions on Iran.

The pledge elicited a veiled threat from Iran Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi, who warned Saudis it "will create all possible problems later." Iran's threats "could be interpreted by Saudi Arabia as an act of war," Al-Tawati said.

The issue is not whether Iran is capable of closing the Strait to oil shipping, but how long it can maintain a full or partial blockade. Al-Tawati suspects three months at most. "The whole world will make a coalition to stop it," he said. "Iran is trying to stop 40% of the oil production getting through. That's an international threat."

Ehsan Ahrari, professor of national security and strategy at the Joint and Combined Warfighting School at the Armed Forces Staff College in Norfolk, Virginia, said he expects the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to join the U.S. to keep the Strait open. "If not with the military, then 100% in support to the point of spending millions, of not billions, in assistance," Ahrari told The Media Line.

The question remains, however, whether Saudi Arabia and its GCC neighbors - Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and United Arab Emirates (UAE) - have the military might to defend  themselves from Iranian aggression.

Nevertheless, GCC leaders have recently gone on a spending spree buying military hardware. Saudi Arabia has been the biggest spender, purchasing from the U.S. about $60 billion worth of F-15 fighter jets, Apache and Black Hawk helicopters, bunker-buster bombs and Patriot missiles. The Pentagon sold an estimated [US] $3.5 billion worth of an anti-ballistic missiles and military technology to the UAE, while Kuwait is set to buy 200 Patriot missiles.

A Middle East analyst for Israel's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, who asked not to be identified because Israel is not directly involved in the Gulf crisis, told The Media Line, "Saudi Arabia's primary concerns are to maintain the stability of the region and to contain Iran's interference, which the Saudis perceive as a destabilizing factor and as a threat to the Saudi regime."

He added Iran's Islamist leadership will consider the implications of a military confrontation, "but you can never be sure about it when political rationale is mixed with an extremist religious viewpoint."

(Excerpts of an article by The Media Line, January 25, 2012)

Quartet to PA: Resume Talks, Develop Gas Reserves

Wassel Abu-Youssef, a member of the PLO's [Palestinian Liberation Organization] executive committee and the Palestinian representative to the exploratory talks with Israel in Jordan said Thursday [February 2] that the Quartet has put together an incentives package that would build trust between the sides and jumpstart the stalled peace process.

The Quartet of international Mideast mediators includes the US, the UN, the European Union and Russia. The Quartet's envoy Tony Blair relayed an outline of the package to Mahmoud Abbas during UN Chief Ban Ki-moon's visit to Ramallah this week, but the Palestinian president said he opposed it.
 
The outline calls on Israel to allow public Palestinian police presence in Area B in the West Bank [Judea and Samaria], which is under Israeli security control and Palestinian administrative control. In addition, the outline states that Israel will ease restrictions on Palestinian traffic in the West Bank, more working permits will be issued to Palestinians who work in Israel and Jerusalem will allow the export of goods from Gaza to the West Bank.
 
During the second phase of the Quartet's plan, which is scheduled for implementation in March, Israel will release Palestinian prisoners, the Palestinian Authority will be authorized to develop gas reserves off Gaza's coastline, the IDF's [Israel Defense Force] activity in Area A will be reduced, and Israel will permit the launching of international projects in Area C.
 
In return, the Palestinians were asked to come back to the negotiations without demanding Israel to freeze settlement construction or recognize the 1967 borders as the foundation for the talks.
 
Abu-Youssef said that Abbas has opposed the UN chief's proposal, saying that the PA won't resume the talks until the aforementioned preconditions are met. The negotiator noted, however, that Abbas hasn't outright rejected the plan.

The Palestinians are expected to formulate their position on the matter during an Arab League monitoring committee meeting next week. Jordan is pressing both sides to meet again to discuss the renewal of the talks.

(By Elior Levy, Ynetnews, February 3, 2012)

Palestinian Kids Created as "Fertilizer" to Saturate the Land with Blood

Dying for the sake of "Palestine" as an ideal, even for Palestinian children and youth, remains part of Palestinian discourse.

This week, official Palestinian Authority [PA] TV reported from a Fatah celebration in a refugee camp in Lebanon and chose to focus on the following slide shown at the celebration. Fatah's message was that children are created so that their blood will be "fertilizer" to saturate the land:

"Our children are our glory and honor, they were created to be fertilizer for the land of Palestine, and for our pure land to be saturated with their blood."

Earlier this month, a PA-Fatah celebration in Ramallah featured a performance with the same message. In front of senior PA leaders, including Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, young children and youth performed a song that included the following words:
"My pure land, I shall saturate you with my blood... redeem you with my life."

Palestinian Media Watch has reported extensively on the PA's teaching of children to die as Martyrs for "Palestine." During the PA's terror campaign (the "Intifada," 2000-2005), the PA encouraged children to aspire for Martyrdom death as a central part of its message to children. Today, the message that children should die for "Palestine" is less prominent, but still found in PA schoolbooks and is expressed in cultural settings through song and dance.
During the terror campaign, PA TV videos presented martyrdom death for children as "sweet." One PA TV music video broadcast hundreds of times from 2001 to 2004, showed a young boy falling dead on the ground to the words: "How sweet is Shahada (Martyrdom), when I am embraced by you, my land!"
 
As a result, children presented death for kids as "sweet" in TV interviews. In 2002, at the height of the terror campaign, an 11-year-old Palestinian girl said on PA TV: "Of course Shahada is sweet. We don't want this world, we want the Afterlife."
As a result of the many years of PA urging children to become Martyrs, Palestinian adults and children still see Martyrdom death as an ideal. Parents speak with honor of their "heroic" children who fell as Martyrs, and children talk of becoming Martyrs.

(Excerpts of an article by Itamar Marcus and Nan Jacques Zilberdik  Palestinian Media Watch, January 31, 2012)

Military Intelligence Chief: Middle East Rediscovering Its Power

"The Middle East is rediscovering its voice and translating it into political power," Director of Military Intelligence Major General Aviv Kochavi said Thursday.
 
Kochavi made a rare appearance at the 2012 Herzliya Conference, where he reviewed regional changes, the effects of theArab Spring and the Iranian threat. "There is a new component in the Middle East, one the leaders and the political parties have realized that they have to pay attention to - the public. This public has discovered that it can overthrow regimes and shape the public agenda.
 
"This public demands its basic right…The young Arab person today is educated, exposed to what's going on in the world and in the West through TV and the Internet. The contrast between that and what they experience is very sharp, creating growing frustration. The public is growing stronger and it's encouraged by the power of social media," he said.

"The main asset possessed by the Arab regimes -  fear - is dissipating. The public dares to dare, while the regimes' power is dwindling. The public in the Middle East has become a pivotal factor in the regimes' decision making process.
 
"This change has led to various things, first and foremost the rise of Islam in Tunisia, Morocco and Egypt. But that was not the driving force behind the uprising. The Islamists recognized the wave (of unrest) and translated their vast infrastructure into political power. The upset in balance was devoid of two things - leadership and clear ideology. The Islamic organizations entered that void with their clear ideology. That move was natural.
 
"Egypt will continue to have a significant role in the shaping of the new Middle East and whatever model it chooses is likely to have significant impact on the rest of the Middle East."

The Middle East, he continued, "is clearly undergoing a process of Islamization and religious argumentation may find its way into the Israeli-Palestinian conflict at the expense of a national one. We're also seeing an old-new altercation in the Middle East, of the tribal ethos.
 
"These changes are not limited to the arena of the public versus the regime. We can also see them between nations: There's tension between three countries  - Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. They each aspire for regional hegemony: Saudi Arabia aspire to have things remain as they are in the Gulf; Iran, for years, has been pursuing an agenda meant to increase its global influence and its influence over the Gulf; and Turkey, that refuses to give up any of its influence in the region, given Europe's cold shoulder."

(Excerpts of an article by Neri Brenner, Ynetnews, February 2, 2012)

Germany Upgrades Palestinian Diplomatic Status

German Chancellor Angela Merkel's government has upgraded the Palestinian diplomatic status to that of "mission headed by an ambassador." The boost, up from "delegation", is similar to changes in status bestowed by other European nations and is seen to be a result of the Palestinian campaign for full United Nations membership and recognition of statehood.

While more than 100 nations have granted the Palestinians full diplomatic status, the influential European capitals have agreed with the United States that full recognition can only come as the result of bilateral talks with Israel.

The US and Israel remain in agreement that the Palestinian campaign for statehood and recognition is being used as a substitute for serious negotiations while the Palestinians argue that full diplomatic status will serve as in impetus for Israel to be more serious in the peace process.

(By The Media Line, February 3, 2012)

On PA TV: Glorification of Fogel Family Murderers

Twice last week, official Palestinian Authority TV broadcast greetings to the murderers of the Fogel family from the relatives of the killers and from the PA TV host.

On March 11, 2011, five members of the Fogel family were killed in their home in the Israeli town Itamar by Palestinian terrorists from the Awad family. Hakim Awad led the attack, killing the parents Ehud and Ruth and three of their children, aged 11 years, 4 years, and 2 months.

The weekly PA TV program For You dedicated  to Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons let the mother and aunt of one of the murderers praise the terrorists as "heroes." After the mother of the murderer Hakim Awad explained how she is prevented from visiting her son for security reasons, the PA TV host said: "Go ahead, sister, we can convey your voice."

On the phone, Hakim Awad's mother "blesses" her "dear son," and despite the fact that participants in this TV program normally do not mention the terror attacks for which their relatives are serving time, the mother mentions that her son is the one who "carried out the operation in Itamar and sentenced to 5 life sentences," referring to her son's brutal killings in the town Itamar.

Hakim Awad's aunt also participated in the program and referred to the terrorists involved in the killings as "heroes," calling Hakim Awad "the hero, the legend." This prompted the PA TV host to add: "We, for our part, also convey our greetings to them."

It was Hakim Awad who killed Ehud and Ruth Fogel and their young children with a knife. The other Awad family members praised on the program as "heroes" were either accessories to the murders or helped destroy evidence.

Although this was a phone conversation, the editors of the PA TV program and its host did know in advance that the callers were relatives of the Fogel murderers. The host introduced them before the conversation took place and a text with the names of the callers appeared at the bottom of the screen.

(Excerpts of an article by Itamar Marcus and Nan Jacques Zilberdik, Palestinian Media Watch, January 29, 2012)

Shalit Visits Family of His Killed Tank Commander

The Barak family of Arad received a special visitor on Sunday - former captive soldier Gilad Shalit. They never met him, only heard stories about him from their son, Hanan, who was Gilad's tank commander and was killed during the Kerem Shalom incident on June 25, 2006.

Hanan's parents, Nela and Dudi, and his sister Atara, hosted Shalit in their house in Arad, where they shared stories about the time Hanan and Gilad's spent together in the tank. "It was clear that we were going to meet Gilad upon his return from captivity," said Nela. "I knew Gilad also wanted to meet us, but we waited for his condition to improve first."

Of the emotional meeting, Nela said: "There were hugs and tears. Gilad told us he loved Hanan. He still looks skinny, but the color is back in his cheeks."
 
Nela Barak and her family took an active part in the campaign to release Gilad, and attended numerous rallies. "The meeting was very emotional for us and gave us closure," she said.

In an interview with Yedioth Ahronoth a day before Shalit's release, Hanan's sister, Atara, said that on Saturdays when her brother would return home from the army he would talk about Shalit, and was particularly worried about him because of his shy nature. "Hanan wanted to be there for Gilad. The only thing Hanan cared about was the wellbeing of his soldiers," she said.
 
Gilad's parents, Noam and Avivaregularly attend Hanan's memorial services. This year, the Barak family hopes to see Gilad join them.

(By Yossi Yehoshua, Ynetnews, January 31, 2012)

Editor's Note: If you would like terror victims and their families know that Christians care for them, you can give a donation to our Victims of War fund:
http://www.bridgesforpeace.com/bless-israel/program/victims-of-war/

Canadian Ministers Meet with President Peres

President Shimon Peres met today at his Jerusalem Residence, with Canadian Foreign Minister John Baird and Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty.  At the start of the meeting, the President said that, "Israel is very lucky to have your friendship which we appreciate very much".

Canadian Foreign Minister Baird said that, "You have no better friend in the world than Canada, no stronger ally who will stand up for you.  We won't stand behind you; we will stand shoulder to shoulder with Israel."

President Peres and the Canadian ministers discussed bilateral cooperation in the field of science and advanced technologies.  Canadian Foreign Minister Baird said that, "Israel is currently cooperating in these fields with Ontario and Nova Scotia, but we are interested in broadening this cooperation to a federal level."

President Peres replied that, "There is much potential to enhance our collaboration in the fields of Science and Technology. Israel is a small country and lacks natural resources whereas Canada is spacious and has been blessed with many natural resources. Our two countries have much to benefit from collaborating in those areas."

(By Isranet, January 30, 2012)