"The Middle East is rediscovering its voice and translating it into political power," Director of Military Intelligence Major General Aviv Kochavi said Thursday.

Kochavi made a rare appearance at the 2012 Herzliya Conference, where he reviewed regional changes, the effects of theArab Spring and the Iranian threat. "There is a new component in the Middle East, one the leaders and the political parties have realized that they have to pay attention to—the public. This public has discovered that it can overthrow regimes and shape the public agenda.

"This public demands its basic right…The young Arab person today is educated, exposed to what's going on in the world and in the West through TV and the Internet. The contrast between that and what they experience is very sharp, creating growing frustration. The public is growing stronger and it's encouraged by the power of social media," he said.

"The main asset possessed by the Arab regimes— fear—is dissipating. The public dares to dare, while the regimes' power is dwindling. The public in the Middle East has become a pivotal factor in the regimes' decision making process.

"This change has led to various things, first and foremost the rise of Islam in Tunisia, Morocco and Egypt. But that was not the driving force behind the uprising. The Islamists recognized the wave (of unrest) and translated their vast infrastructure into political power. The upset in balance was devoid of two things – leadership and clear ideology. The Islamic organizations entered that void with their clear ideology. That move was natural.

"Egypt will continue to have a significant role in the shaping of the new Middle East and whatever model it chooses is likely to have significant impact on the rest of the Middle East."

The Middle East, he continued, "is clearly undergoing a process of Islamization and religious argumentation may find its way into the Israeli-Palestinian conflict at the expense of a national one. We're also seeing an old-new altercation in the Middle East, of the tribal ethos.

"These changes are not limited to the arena of the public versus the regime. We can also see them between nations: There's tension between three countries —Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. They each aspire for regional hegemony: Saudi Arabia aspire to have things remain as they are in the Gulf; Iran, for years, has been pursuing an agenda meant to increase its global influence and its influence over the Gulf; and Turkey, that refuses to give up any of its influence in the region, given Europe's cold shoulder."

Kochavi added that Iran is watchful of the political changes in the region, which it sees as an opportunity to infuse the Middle East with Iranian funds and arms – actions that have the Saudi's view Tehran as a political and military threat.

Turkey, meanwhile, offers democracy-infused Islam—nationalistic passion combined with a link to the West. But Turkey and Iran—though they have bilateral ties—are at odds: Turkey has taken several steps that are in contras to Iranian interests, Kochavi said.

The regional changes, he continued, "Also spell a decrease in the power of the radical axis, Iran-Syria-Lebanon-Hezbollah on the on hand, and Iran-Hamas-Islamic Jihad in Gaza, on the other hand.

"…The difficulties are compounded by shrinking economy, which is that all of these countries have in common. That will be their test in the next few years."
 

Source: (By Neri Brenner, Ynetnews, February 2, 2012)